What does this mean?
U.S. 30-year treasury hits 2007 levels
Fuck that shit give me double digit yields.
Isn't this shit what caused Trump to back off on the April 2 tariffs
oh my goy its 5%
it was alraedy 5% and nobody cares because they want it at 13% but it will never happen
this is ltierally outdated horseshit
yields are down
The signs of an impending collapse are clear, but the golden question is how long can they keep kicking the can down the road, and how can you hedge against it once the system inevitably fails?
Yields are down
Still 4.9%
desu I feel like they want the normies to eat shit on their equity to burn all that injected cash.
Rookie numbers.
it means nigger nigger
yes
América is fucked, even if trump can pay this year bonds,the next year or the next will be unpayable. It's only a question of time.
Means a loaf of bread is about to cost 50 bucks
How does increasing bond yields increase the cost of a loaf of bread?
Mortages and car loan shit sure, but it shouldn't change the price of eggs.
What does this mean?
Absolutely nothing.
There is plenty of liquidity in the markets and everything will continue to go up.
Take out a loan and invest the money in the stock market.
investing.com
Its already over
Not good. It means refinancing the debt is more expensive.
No it's fine. No need to refinance, we'll just tax the shit out of everyone except the corporations and their biggest shareholders.
Means mutts are about to oook skinny again.
You have to print more money to pay debts which increases the number of dollars which decreases their value.
a lot of farmers take loans out for production. higher interest rates mean they need to sell higher to make profit.
Refinancing, from the government down to the individual, is going to buckbreak everyone
It means they need people to buy bonds before the US does a USSR so they are offering a higher rate which will mean they need to borrow even more to pay that rate and the cycle continues until it either does USSR or you get a government that understands neoliberalism has failed and socialist policy will need to be passed to recover it.
not really, all the major American companies are flush with cash though, all this does is continue the trend of killing small business and enriching the ultra wealthy white turning the population into wage slaves
collapse!
All it means is that debt is more expensive until inflation is tamed and the fed rate gets lowered
not true the 10 year yield determines loan rates
And by "more expensive" you mean the debt costs considerably more to roll than the whole US military.
I'm pretty sure the Fed only does the overnight rate and the market does the rest.
ok I'll be serious for a sec
it instantly went back down because everyone started buying
yeah, and do you see any difference in the liquidity situation in general now?
where is the money going to come from this time?
not from the money printer (unless you are the elite of the elite)
means markets dont believe into short term success and bet on longer term solutions like 30 year treasury papers
those digits
You're probably right of course. I haven't looked but I'm sure the megacaps are flush. But yeah smaller and/or more marginal businesses are fucked. The government is too, to a degree, which means some kind of austerity. Corporate feudalism marches on. People are already using klarna to buy lunch
Federal Funds rate became obsolete last century, and it became obviously obsolete in 2007-2008. They finally started paying attention to repo where the "real" money is in 2019. They still don't understand that their entire view of the monetary system is wrong.
oh man I'm talking to a retard
uh no everything was sold because everyone needed liquidity
30 year is not that important as a leading indicator for something imminent, everyone knows it’s fucked because of kike yellen.
In reality... doesn't mean shit because the fed buys its own debt (in other words puts it as a lien against your future earnings.)
Yeah, the 10 year is a better indicator of what is really happening. Not that it isn't part of the big Ponzi scheme too...
What is the long term interest rate breaking point where debt swallows up the whole budget and the US does some sort of default?
Trump certainly I can see simply telling foreigners too bad sorry you're not getting paid back (while honouring debts to American holders).
Housing is going to crash soon
$36.22 trillion in federal debt
$4.92 trillion in federal income
At 13.58%, rolling the debt costs more than the all taxes.
The US will default long before it's 100% because the day the military checks bounce is the day the civil war starts.
The US can get into a debt spiral, or use alternative methods, to keep the military well paid.
interest rate is 5%
fed lowers rates
debt is now 1.25%
suddenly a fourth
Correct
Housing already crashed a lot of major metro areas are down 20%
If there were enough people willing to buy bonds at 1.25%, it'd not be 5%.
czechd
shit like cap1 quietly buying out discover card today and it being sold as good thing for the goyim. consumer debt is already insane and im sure theyre playing casino games with it like the setup of 08
Trump certainly I can see simply telling foreigners too bad sorry you're not getting paid back (while honouring debts to American holders).
Not even all holders. US could invalidate certain tranches, say just the ones China holds.
the day the military checks bounce is the day the civil war starts.
Nah it's the day EBT stops working. Although suspect there is some overlap between the two groups.
Most debt is not held by foreign creditors, aside from the labyrinth of treasuries that back Eurodollars. They will just extend the maturity and increase reserve requirements, we really haven’t seen any unconventional ratfucking they can do to keep it rolling. Bear in mind countries currencies implode all the time and they don’t necessarily go mad max with the exception of Venezuela.
Thats not how this works. The fed rate is 4%. Thats the whole reason rates are above 4%
Its magic hew bullshit
That's literally how it works, the FED cannot set a rate lower than what people are willing to pay for US bonds.
mind countries currencies implode all the time
no
they really dont
and certainly not first world countries
EBT
True but I suspect they will be the same day.
boomers will cut rate to zero again when they see house prices decline. all boomer wealth is in real estate
Japan and Russia are still doing fine.
Japan hasnt defaulted
And neither has Russia, unless your country forces banks to follow political guidelines.
what has that to do with anything I said?
The US defaulting would be a deliberate choice, not an inevitability. The US would do exactly what Japan did. I’m just pushing back on the idea that there will be some permanent destruction of the reserve status, it would recover one way or another.
You guys have a really hard time understanding times change, I agree that after 2008 people were willing to buy US bonds with very low interests, but today with a very real risk of a US default, massive debt and even failing in the credit score, buyers who are not forced to buy expect at least 5% interests to buy.
what did Japan do?
they still have sky high debt
It's not even or just the risk of outright default, it's the inflation/devaluation risk of holding USD denominated anything.
They didn’t default. just intervened in the bond market like the US already has, which is a soft default but keeps the system intact. I’m not saying there aren’t social consequences for this but to expect the US or any government issuing debt in its own currency to lose control and be forced to default is misguided. They may choose to but they nor Japan ever has to.
most attorney instruments recorded at county deed record use 18% per annum
What does this mean?
money is fake. /thread
THANK YOU!
Some people believe that in this crazy environment, with a very clear risk of default, the FED can choose to sell bonds as 0.25% and roll 35 tri USD.
The FED can set the rate for banks are -10%, the problem is that American banks and other institutions forced to buy US bonds cannot buy enough to roll the US debt today, like the could in 2008.
but as a consequence Japanese inflation has gone up substantially to the point its stupid to hold japanese bonds
I think Japan hasnt solved anything
It'd kill the reserve status of the USD in a day.
If a bank as a billion dollars in reserves and there is 3% inflation, but the fed has rates as low as 1%... They can either just sit there and lose 3% of their money every year or they can buy treasures at 1% and only lose 2%. They aren't just going to throw away money for no reason.
The problem is a bank never just sits on reserves. They leverage the shit out of them. So if they buy a bunch of low yield, high price bonds and use them as collateral for a whole Jenga tower of other shit, which they do, and then bond yields go up that means their collateral starts losing value rapidly and threatens the whole tower. This isn't hypothetical, it's exactly what has happened to the fed itself.
As long as everyone owes each other dollars, they will always NEED dollars to pay each other...
The US will only keep its value as a reserve currency as long as:
1. The US doesn't default, either a hard or soft default
2. The US pays interests on US bonds compatible with the risk of default
3. The doesn't do something as stupid defaulting bonds with some countries, or keeping using the USD as a weapon
It should take me around 15 minutes to switch a USD denominated debt of mine into RMB, YEN or anything else.
It wouldn’t, the USD is the second, third and fourth option for reserve currency and everyone knows it. It’s like thinking a company that files for chapter 11 because of a string of bad bets completely ceases to exist, it’s simply restructured. The US still provides the most stable and trustworthy institutions as kiked as they are.
It means I am about to make a metric fuckton of cold hard cash.
The US still provides the most stable and trustworthy institutions as kiked as they are.
I'd say the US still has a lot of inertia supporting the USD as a reserve currency today, and the custom to use any means up to military power to defend the status of the USD.
The moment the US has a soft default, the best it can hope for is for countries to take "non-USD USD denominated" debt, letting the USD still have an central role to play.
It should take me around 15 minutes to switch a USD denominated debt of mine into RMB, YEN or anything else.
Sure, you as an individual, moving a miniscule amount of money. The ENTIRE GLOBAL ECONOMY trying to move hundreds of trillions of dollar denominated debts into other currencies... No. That would instantly crash the value of the dollar while also sending the value of other currencies to the moon... Which would be the same as writing off the debt... Because all those liabilities would suddenly be worth $0.00000001 on the dollar.
Yeah but i did originally make a distinction about social consequences being manageable vs venezuela tier (people eating pets vs banks taking a haircut on their bond folios), which is not the case with Japan and even russia weathered a full scale beat down relatively well, people still got up and went to work. Shit recovers, people adapt to, it has to go catastrophically wrong and fast for it to go to the places some anons are imagining.
The thing you don't seem to understand is that debt between countries doesn't need to necessarily be settled in a "universal currency", it's perfectly possible for Argentina to pay Brazil in pesos or Reais equivalent to the amount of the debt in USD.
While it's not common, but not that rare, for a country to transfer debts to IMF and similar institutions to PRC, the value to be paid is kept in USD, but payments are done in RMB.
You aren’t wrong but i believe he is talking about existing debt that is rehypothecated and matures decades from now, its a stupendous amount of demand for the foreseeable future.
Just exit the US dollar.
You can get chickens that turn free stuff into eggs yourself
You can mill your own grain using hydroelectric, wind, solar, gasification, a steam engine
You can even make your own black powder and ammo.
It means the capital market does not think highly of the USA ability to repay. But something else crazy will happen somewhere else in the world and all the money will come rushing back to the relative safe haven of the USA. Rates will dip again, give it a year.
You aren’t wrong but i believe he is talking about existing debt that is rehypothecated and matures decades from now, its a stupendous amount of demand for the foreseeable future.
It should be possible to offer a re-evaluate of national debts by many different ways. This usually causes a loss for the country doing it, but nothing absurd of too hard to execute.
The most typical way being the swapping the USD debt for another currency, usually a basket of currencies, but a there are cases like that of Russia re-evaluate their debt in oil, instead of USD.
The real problem is the loss in the process, some 4% - 8%.
Trump's plan is working.
They would already be using other currencies to settle these transactions...
As it's becoming more and more common, the USD still holds a place due to inertia, due to a broad agreement with oil producing countries to only sell in USD (the so-called petrodollar) and due to use of force by the US on any country not trading on USD.
What you need to understand is that debt is owned to countries, Brazilian Reais are no use for a mutt like you, sure, but they are absolutely acceptable as a payment for debts owned to Brazil. The same goes for RMB and debt owned to PRC, Rubles and debt owned to Russia, Euros and debt owned to any Eurozone nation... nations are willing to receive payment in their own currencies.
1,000,000,000,000 in interest owed by the US is hilarious. No way to cut your way out of that avalanche.
Check out the numbers- usdebtclock.org
The line must go up until there's no line left.
The reserve currency doesn’t really have much to do with sovereign debt holders looking for a real return, it’s more about the Eurodollar ledger. And they overwhelmingly prefer to settle in treasuries and could care less about who is paying who back as long as the treasuries are liquid, are readily available and facilitating trade and not a hot potato like every other currency that can only be traded for one or two commodities.
As long as the mean they're being paid has enough liquidity, and they get paid, people don't care. It should be possible for a country pay in gold and silver.
Two options:
us cuts spending to balance the budget and stops being the world police but survives as a nation
us increases spending to a debt death spiral and stops being world police due to balkanization
The US can just default
At this point I think the jews at the Fed are deliberately trying to hamstring Trump. The Fed is still doing QT even though the yields are this high and inflation was 2.3% last quarter,
I’m fine with trump shitting on Canada but the tarrifs are a legitimate excuse for Powell to do nothing, I’m not sure what kind of Jew mindtricks Lutnick is trying but he gave them a perfectly non-political cover not to cut.
Possible but the counterparty has to accept and maybe they aren’t interested in dealing with gold and silver futures, especially silver which is not money like gold is.
Balancing the budget isn’t enough
This is why a possible US (soft) default is so relevant, it washes away the last resistance against non-USD payment of debt.
hi shill
You can be on your own easily isolated and years of Vidya gaymes allows you to have a mini map radar like sense to all dangers even while exhausted from all that labor you will be doing by yourself. Don't forget trust no one and abandon everything :^)
Gold will go way over 4000
Bond yields will hit 10% amor more
A bond yield of 14% means interests are larger than the US government revenue.
Yes that correct we are over 150 trillion in debt
See
Take a look how far the US is in the red. Also if it's going to get bad for us it will get very bad for everyone else
Your math is wrong it's like anywhere from 100t to 150t+ right now take a look at the US debt clock
Also if it's going to get bad for us it will get very bad for everyone else
Now this is what I call a cope.
Every bank would be a smouldering crater at that level, you will never see the ticker actually get over 6% before the fed
cucks out so please anons learn from 2020 and don’t wait for that to start buying. get ready for the blow off top next year, no one knows what happens when they restart buying bonds again but it will be your last chance to make some money for whatever is next.
That's not the total debt of everything
If you are playing by your made up rules, at least have the decency of saying.
You be the one coping because the only way you're going to survive is to go into the Amazon jungle and live off the land to survive
What about the FED reserves played up rules this thing's a whole house of cards dude very strength of your shit pussy
My country will get its debts in USD written off as your collapse.
It means loans are expensive. We knew that. Nothing else can be known what it means.
If you it means a market crash...well maybe..but if everyone is expecting a crash it won't happen
*wrings hands*
just print more dollars lmao who cares the (white) goy cattle can't escape
See right there over 100t
Well in short it means the system is broken
Debt is money the money supply is over 22t also look at the 700t number
Ah yes, the total debt including private and corporate debt.... yeah...
122% debt to gdp ratio
Refractional reserve banking it is all connected
Now that's a cope and a half
Anyone with half of the brain knows what is going to happen the elite have drawn out there plain and have told the mass what they are going to do.
we're already there as far as the debt's growth outpacing US economy growth
insolvency is 10 years down the line
Not really. They've left the option to start printing any time plausibly open.
But it seems like the threat of civil unrest is forcing them to enact 'austerity'.
You can help: make veiled terroristic comments online TODAY!
Okay but I think there are less people on the inside of this than you think. I’m not really interested in sensational prison planet theories where they have perfect foreknowledge and control. At a certain point the elite may have just fucked it up, and let’s not forget it’s the boomer entitlements that have a will of their own that drive this over the cliff.
Yes we had guarantee cash benefits but we can't guarantee the purchasing power of his said cash benefits
No civil unrest it's about time for ww3 and everyone buying war bonds and getting ration books
See this fool gets it we are on the edge fo
What did they fuck up?
Pissing off so many whites that we'll never stop being pissed until we destroy their golem circus and kill them all?
Probably.
But they don't know.
That's the double edged blade of mass surveillance.
The chilling effect. We know they're listening and we are holding back what we really think.
They thought they could deduce it from watching our every mouse twitch, every whisper our cells phones can pick up etc.
But I don't think so.
Almost any monetary fuck up can be papered over with printing and propaganda.
And unless the white volcano erupts very soon it won't matter.
They are treading very softly now. But I hear them.
Like fdr forcing citizens to turn in there gold they will be asked to pay there part of the debt it's like 300k per citizen. If you can't afford it then to the work camp you go for 10-20 years it's can fall down many different ways. Paying back p*** that holders with funny money that would make them upset
They are afraid to start WW3 because they don't know how bad domestic insurgency will be.
Same problem as WW2 except millions of white men have been utterly shit on for decades this time.
Maybe they try to start it in europe and drag us in like last time.
Nah that won't work. Europe is both too comfortable and too disillusioned.
There is no way to frame any conflict as an existential threat without nukes or something. And that would just be too destabilizing.
The truth is the kike elite don't know what to do and are buying time.
They will probably make things easier for us to this end.
japan's bond market chilling in the toilet
wolfstreet.com
They literally have porn about yen depreciation, lmao.
jav.guru
truth is the kike elite don't know what to do and are buying time
kikes are fundamentally opportunistic feeders combined with an insatiable hunger and blood lust. theyre looking for that next wounded gazelle and i think it might actually be an internal strife in europe due to the shitskin hordes raping across the land, a problem they created. get nafo involved in a domestic violence slugging match to draw eyes away from what theyre actually up to
holy based
Start buying what/when?
It means they need people to buy bonds
and don't have them.
No that is not what it means.
Global debt market is extremely volatile and unstable over the past few years, more so than in half a century.
market crash
The market you need to watch and be concerned about is (no, not stocks) the global debt aka bond market.
Entire global economy is a Debt-Based Economic Model.
USD is the world's default reserve debt note fiat currency that is relied on by everyone, and so is America's issuance of Treasury bonds. Confidence in the global bond market is what underpins and upholds the entire worldwide debt-based system (of debt note fiat currency, derivatives, loans, sovereign/corporate debt, everything else)
When the debt market implodes, so goes it all.
instant Mad Max